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09/08/2010 - Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter rivals clash at Kinnick Stadium this weekend, as the ninth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes do battle with the Iowa State Cyclones.
The Hawkeyes took care of business in their opener last weekend, as they tallied a 37-7 victory over Eastern Illinois, a FCS program.
"We're very happy with the win," UI head coach Kirk Ferentz said. "All-in-all, I think we're all pleased. It was good we got to play a lot of guys in the fourth quarter."
It was certainly a better performance than last year's opener, when the Hawkeyes used a pair of blocked field goals in the final seconds to hold off Northern Iowa for a 17-16 victory. The win last weekend was the 10th straight in season openers for Iowa, which is expected to compete for a national title with the return of several key players from last year's 11-2 squad.
ISU meanwhile, is looking to build off last season's 7-6 performance that included a bowl game victory. The Cyclones got things started on a high note, as they topped Northern Illinois, 27-10, in their opener on September 2nd.
"That was an outstanding win against a very good football team," stated Paul Rhoads, who is the first ISU coach to be 2-0 in season openers since Donnie Duncan (1979-80).
The Cyclones though, now have a much tougher task ahead of them, as they clash with the highly regarded Hawkeyes for the 58th time on the gridiron. Iowa leads the all-time series 38-19 and has won two straight, including a 35-3 victory in Ames last season. Furthermore, Iowa hasn't allowed a TD to ISU in 14 quarters, spanning four years, although the Cyclones did us a bunch of field goals to pick up a 15-13 victory in '07.
In last Thursday's win over NIU, the Cyclones racked up 403 total yards and scored all three of their TDs on the ground. The team however, averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and nearly half of its rushing yards came on a 63-yard TD scamper by Alexander Robinson, who finished with 97 yards and two scores on 19 totes. A 1,000-yard rusher last season, Robinson also caught four balls for 32 yards.
QB Austen Arnaud can also do damage with his legs and he was a big reason why ISU managed a hardy 180.0 ypg on the ground in '09. In the opener, Arnaud toted 14 times for 45 yards and a TD. He even showed improved accuracy by connecting on 27-of-36 tosses for 265 yards, although he had no passing TDs against two INTs. He will need to be much sharper if ISU is to penetrate Iowa's stingy defense.
The Cyclones did solid work on defense last Thursday, holding NIU to just 249 total yards and 10 points. The unit did an especially good job versus the pass, as NIU completed only 14-of-29 tosses for a mere 93 yards with three picks versus no TDs. Jake Knott came up with two of those INTs, to go with nine tackles and a forced fumble, while A.J. Klein led the defense with 15 stops.
"Jake's two interceptions were huge," Rhoads said. "He had a good number of tackles and he plays the game with passion."
Behind 435 yards of offense, including 179 rushing, the Hawkeyes easily took care of EIU in their opener this past weekend. Tailback Adam Robinson enjoyed a big day, as he went for 109 yards and a career-high three TDs on 24 carries. It marked the third career 100-yard effort for Robinson, who set an Iowa freshman record with 834 rushing yards last season.
"The offensive line did a great job of giving me running room and I took advantage of that," stated Robinson. "Rick [Stanzi] was great and we just played together as a team."
Robinson was thrust into a bigger role last year after Jewel Hampton suffered a torn ACL prior to the start of the campaign. Hampton, a freshman sensation in '08, was suspended for the opener, but is expected back this weekend. His return gives Iowa another weapon to work with while also taking some of the burden off Robinson.
QB Ricky Stanzi turned in a good effort versus NIU as well, throwing for 229 yards and a TD on 18-of-23 tosses. Never a player known for his numbers, Stanzi is a proven leader and winner, owning a 19-4 record as a starter.
Iowa returns eight starters from a defense that allowed only 15.4 ppg in '09, so this unit is expected to be among the best around. The defense didn't look rusty in the opener, when the group held EIU to a measly 157 yards of total offense. The Hawkeyes permitted just 65 of those yards on the ground, while surrendering a mere six first downs. Karl Klug, who had 13 TFLs last season, paced Iowa with six stops and 1.5 TFLs in the win.
<< Hurricanes blow into Columbus to battle Buckeyes
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A much-anticipated matchup between the second-
ranked Ohio State Buckeyes and the 12th-ranked Miami-Florida Hurricanes will
ensue in Columbus on Saturday afternoon.
As expected, Miami cruised to victory over F
<< LSU visits Vanderbilt in SEC lidlifter
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vanderbilt Commodores are coming off a
highly-disappointing week-one loss, and they will open SEC play on Saturday
against the 19th-ranked LSU Tigers, who are fresh off a drama-filled victory.
LSU took on
<< Ranked SEC foes lock horns in Columbia
Columbia, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Richt leads his 22nd-ranked Georgia
Bulldogs into an SEC battle with Steve Spurrier's 24th-ranked South Carolina
Gamecocks in Columbia this weekend.
"Our guys are focused on South Carolina right now," sai
<< Tigers battle Bulldogs in SEC action
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - SEC action begins on Thursday in Starkville
as the Mississippi State Bulldogs welcome the 21st-ranked Auburn Tigers to
town.
Auburn opened its season last weekend with a 52-26 victory over Arkansas
State.
Fireworks likely in showdown between Ducks and Volunteers >>
Knoxville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off perhaps the most impressive
performance in week one of the 2010 college football season, the seventh-
ranked Oregon Ducks take to the road, as they invade SEC Country to battle the
Tennessee Volunteer
Yellow Jackets and Jayhawks square off in Lawrence >>
Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 15th-ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
take their act on the road for the first time this season, as they invade
Lawrence this weekend, for a showdown with the Kansas Jayhawks in an ACC/Big
XII non-conferenc
Sooners and Seminoles meet in Top-25 showdown >>
Norman, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams with a lot to prove square off in a
tiop-25 showdown in Norman this weekend, as the 10th-ranked Oklahoma Sooners
play host to the 17th-ranked Florida State Seminoles.
The Seminoles got the Jimbo Fisher
No. 4 TCU hosts FCS foe Tennessee Tech >>
Fort Worth, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With one of the toughest games on their
schedule already out of the way, the fourth-ranked TCU Horned Frogs now focus
their attention on the Golden Eagles of Tennessee Tech in a non-conference
showdown at Amon
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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