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07/27/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nearly a month after the doors to NHL free agency opened, the auction for the best up-for-grabs players has come to a screeching halt.
On the first day of the highly anticipated off-season extravaganza, owners opened up their checkbooks and dished out close to $230 million over 78 years for 33 new players ... just slightly above Ilya Kovalchuk's most recent offer.
While that might be an exaggeration in regard to Kovalchuk, the drop-off in player movement since then is not.
Since July 1, the biggest names who have found a new home are Matthew Lombardi and Pavel Kubina. Most of the other moves have been small in scale, and centered around depth players and minor-leaguers.
Although this isn't an unusual phenomenon, as the cream of the yearly crop is generally scooped up as quickly as possible, there are still several quality players looking for work.
Teams looking for a veteran presence have plenty to choose from with players such as Paul Kariya, Teemu Selanne, Mike Modano, Doug Weight and Bill Guerin all awaiting a phone call.
Although these players represent hockey of a previous era, they would still be able to contribute effectively to a team in need of leadership or playoff experience.
Next up are the "goal scorers".
Leading this list are Russian snipers Maxim Afinogenov followed by former Maple Leafs Alexei Ponikarovsky and Lee Stempniak.
Based on his stats from last season, it would appear Afinogenov is in for a big raise. The speedy winger notched 24 goals and 61 points for the Atlanta Thrashers after signing a one-year $800,000 deal a year ago.
Afinogenov is certainly worthy of a raise, but after slumbering through two injury-shortened seasons in Buffalo prior to signing with the Thrashers, leery GM's might be hesitant to fork over the dough for a player with a battered past.
Stempniak had the most goals of the bunch, with 28 a season ago, although half of those came in an 18-game span after the Phoenix Coyotes acquired him at the trade deadline.
Despite his outlandish production post-trade deadline, it's unlikely Stempniak will cash in big with just over a month to go before training camps open up.
The biggest detriment to Ponikarovsky's value is his playoff performance in Pittsburgh after the Penguins traded for him at the deadline.
He put up five points in 11 games, but was also a healthy scratch twice. That said, he's been a consistent 20-goal scorer since the lockout and could compliment any team looking for scoring depth.
Several other players such as Marty Turco, Raffi Torres, Andy Sutton and Willie Mitchell should garner attention as well, but likely at reduced rates.
With younger players cracking the big leagues on entry-level contracts and budding stars signing lifelong deals, the once abundant and exciting free agent period has become a victim of salary cap-era management.
While free agency will always remain an option for teams looking to add a few pieces to the puzzle, the impact it once had on the league and the players involved has vanished temporarily.
For how long is anybody's guess.
<< Broncos sign rookie WR Decker
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Broncos came to terms with rookie
wide receiver Eric Decker, the team announced on Tuesday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Decker, who was taken in the third round -- 87th overall --
<< USA dominates Chinese Taipei at World Junior Baseball Championship
Thunder Bay, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For a team expecting to play right through
the end of the tournament, the United States is doing a good job of preserving
energy.
Phillip Pfeifer (1-0) dominated a hot-hitting Chinese Taipei squad over sev
<< Gaming: C-USA a one-team league in non-conference play
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Take away Houston's straight-up and
against-the-spread non-conference records in 2009, and Conference USA was a
meat market for its opposition. The Cougars were 3-1 both SU and ATS outside
the conference, in
<< Calgary's Bryant highlights CFL Players of the Week
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Calgary wide receiver Romby Bryant, Montreal
defensive end John Bowman, Winnipeg kick returner Jovon Johnson and Calgary
running back Jon Cornish were selected as the CFL's top performers for Week 4
of the
Former Buckeye, Raider Tatum dies >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hard-hitting linebacker/safety Jack Tatum has
passed away at the age of 61 after suffering a heart attack on Tuesday.
Nicknamed "The Assassin," Tatum played for Ohio State from 1968-70 and for the
Oakland Rai
Braves, Ross agree to two-year extension >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Braves and catcher David
Ross agreed to a two-year extension through the 2012 season.
Financial terms were not available.
Ross is currently batting .269 with 18 RBI in 35 games this sea
CFL West: Burris powers through errors in win over Riders >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While a home win by the Calgary Stampeders
against the Saskatchewan Roughriders isn't completely surprising, that the win
came by 20 points is not something many would have expected. Calgary put on a
great sec
Celtic signs striker Hooper >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Celtic made its sixth signing of the
offseason Tuesday, adding 22-year-old striker Gary Hooper on a four-year deal
from Scunthorpe United.
Hooper had 43 goals in 80 matches for Scunthorpe United, a
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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