Sizzling Braves head out west to battle Dodgers

Baseball Betting Lines

06/03/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National League East-leading Atlanta Braves bring their rags to riches story to the west coast and will begin an 11-game road trip tonight with the first of four straight meetings with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.

Atlanta was 6 1/2 games out of first place in the NL East standings in mid- May, but an eight-game winning streak and back-to-back sweeps of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have pushed the Braves 2 1/2 games ahead of the two-time defending National League champion Phillies for the top spot in the division.

The Braves completed their second straight sweep with a 2-1 victory over Philadelphia Wednesday afternoon at Turner Field, where Omar Infante singled home Nate McLouth for the go-ahead run in the eighth inning. Infante and Martin Prado both finished with two hits for Atlanta, which is riding its first eight-game winning streak since 2003 and hasn't posted nine straight victories since a franchise-best 15-game run from April 16-May 2, 2000.

Starter Derek Lowe posted his eighth win of the season and third straight triumph on the mound, as he was charged with just one run on six hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over eight innings.

"Today was a big game," Braves manager Bobby Cox said on the team's site. "We gained three [games] on them instead of one. We lose today, we gain one. We win today, we gain three. Today was a huge game for us to win."

Billy Wagner walked one and struck out a batter in the ninth for his ninth save of the season.

Atlanta has won 23 of its last 31 games and is a season-best nine games over the .500 mark. It has also won seven of the previous nine series. The Braves, who will also visit Arizona and Minnesota on the trip, will send Kris Medlen to the hill Thursday. Medlen is 2-1 with a 2.85 earned run average in 17 games (4 starts) this season.

Medlen won his last outing on Saturday in a 6-3 win versus Pittsburgh, as he tossed six innings of three-run ball and allowed nine hits with four K's. The right-hander will make his first career start against the Dodgers and is 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four relief matchups in this series.

Los Angeles needed consecutive 1-0 wins in extra innings to extend its victory streak to four games, and completed a three-game sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday.

Veteran outfielder Garret Anderson singled in Matt Kemp with two outs in the bottom of the 14th inning and Jamey Carroll finished with three hits for the Dodgers, who got their season-long 13-game homestand off to a great start.

"It was a well-timed single," Anderson said of his big hit. "I saw it hit the grass. I'm trying to contribute as much as I can. I'm trying to find my way. I tip my hat to the pitchers today."

Carlos Monasterios pitched five scoreless innings before Ramon Troncoso, Justin Miller, Jonathan Broxton, Ronald Belisario and Travis Schlichting went the rest of the way to preserve shutout. Schlichting allowed three hits over the final four frames for his first win of his career.

The Dodgers have won seven in a row and 11 of the last 13 against Arizona, and will also welcome the Cardinals and Angels to Hollywood. They'll begin tonight's series with Atlanta by sending Hiroki Kuroda to the mound for his 11st start. Kuroda has dropped two straight trips to the mound after going 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA in his previous four outings.

Kuroda was roughed up by Colorado the last time out in an 11-3 loss on Saturday at Coors Field, where he surrendered seven runs -- five earned -- and 10 hits in a season-low four innings. The right-hander, who is 5-3 with a 3.55 ERA this season, will face Atlanta for the third time in his career. He is 1-1 with a 1.20 earned run average in his first two encounters with the Braves.

Los Angeles sits just one game behind San Diego for the lead in the National League West Division. It will take on Atlanta for the first time this season and lost four of the seven meetings a year ago. The Braves have won the last three matchups between the clubs -- all at Dodger Stadium.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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