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07/23/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - SENIOR BRITISH OPEN - SENIOR BRITISH OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP, Muirfield Golf Club, Gullane, East Lothian, Scotland - The Senior circuit heads across the pond this week for the Senior British Open as the golf world remains focused on the British Isles.
The middle of July brings three straight weeks of British Opens. Irishman Padraig Harrington won the British Open last week, this week is the Senior British and next week will be the Women's British Open.
Loren Roberts headed to Scotland last week to begin preparation for his title defense at the Senior British Open. He played 136th Open Championship at Carnoustie, but after rounds of 74-75 missed the cut.
Last year, Roberts entered the final round four strokes clear of Eduardo Romero, but both struggled Sunday. Roberts could only manage a five-over 75, while Romero shot 71. That left them tied at six-under-par 274.
Things would have been more interesting if Tim Simpson hadn't struggled to a four-over 74 to end at minus-one. Dick Mast tried to make it a three-man playoff, but his Sunday-best, three-under 67 left him one stroke back.
Roberts needed only a par on the 18th in the playoff at Turnberry to win his second Champions Tour major.
Romero was denied his first Champions Tour win, but he didn't wait long to collect it. He claimed the final major in 2006, the JELD-WEN Tradition, as he erased a five-shot deficit then birdied the first playoff hole for the title.
This week's host course, Muirfield, has hosted its fair share of top-flight events, including the Ryder Cup, Walker Cup and British Amateur. Muirfield has also hosted more Open Championships, 15, than any other course.
Bob Charles and Tom Watson are the only two players to have won the British Open and Senior British Opens at the same venue.
Three players are scheduled to tee it up this week who have a chance to match that feat. The one likely with the least chance is Gary Player. He does own 19 Champions Tour wins, but the 71-year-old has not won on tour since 1998.
Tom Watson, who owns five British Open and two Senior British Open crowns, won at Muirfield in 1980. He has won nine Champions Tour events, with this year's Outback Steakhouse Pro-Am title being his last.
The last of the three players with a chance to win the Open and Senior Open on the same course is Nick Faldo.
Faldo, who turns 50 on Wednesday, will look to win for a third time at Muirfield. Faldo won the British Open at Muirfield in 1987 and 1992. He played at Carnoustie last week, but missed the cut by six strokes.
This will be just the 21st playing of this championship, while it is just the fifth year on the Champions Tour schedule.
The winners of the first two majors this year were both first-time winners. Denis Watson, the Senior PGA champion, and Brad Bryant, the U.S. Senior Open winner, will both try to collect their second major title at Muirfield.
TNT will have two hours of coverage of the first two rounds. ABC will cover the weekend action with 90 minutes of coverage Saturday and two hours of action on Sunday.
The Champions Tour will be back in action next week with the 3M Championship, where David Edwards earned the 2006 title.
PGA TOUR
CANADIAN OPEN, Angus Glen Golf Club (North Course), Markham, Ontario, Canada - The PGA returns to North America, but remains outside the U.S. as the tour heads to Ontario for the Canadian Open.
With the new PGA Tour schedule, this event was moved up a little more than a month from September 7-10 last year. Thanks to the new schedule, there is less star power than normal heading to Angus Glen.
World No. 3 Jim Furyk heads the field, but the next highest-ranked player is Canadian Mike Weir, who is ranked 38th. The only other players in the top 50 are No. 38 Stephen Ames, a naturalized Canadian citizen who was born in Trinidad, and No. 46 John Rollins.
Furyk, the defending champion, closed with rounds of 67-65 to fend off Bart Bryant by one and Sean O'Hair by two last year at Hamilton Golf & Country Club.
Furyk trailed Justin Rose by two entering the final round, but Rose went the wrong way. He closed with a four-over 74 to drop into a share of 14th.
The event rotates over several different courses with 38 different venues hosting throughout tournament history. The North Course at Angus Glen is hosting the event for the first time since 2002.
The Golf Channel will broadcast action of the opening two rounds, while CBS takes over for the weekend.
Next up for the PGA Tour is a pair of events. Many of the top players in the game will be in Akron, Ohio, for the World Golf Championships - Bridgestone Invitational, where Tiger Woods is the defending champion. The opposite event is the Reno-Tahoe Open, where Will Mackenzie claimed the title in '06.
EUROPEAN TOUR
DEUTSCHE BANK PLAYERS' CHAMPIONSHIP OF EUROPE, Gut Kaden, Hamburg, Germany - The European Tour has its second straight big event as the field heads to Germany for the Deutsche Bank Players Championship of Europe.
Several players who teed it up last week at Carnoustie have made the trek to Gut Kaden this week.
Anders Romero had the lead on the back nine at the British Open, but his double bogey-bogey finish left him in third place, one stroke out of the playoff.
Romero will go to Gut Kaden looking to secure his first tour win. He had four top-10 finishes this year and had four last year as well. Romero posted 20- under par last year at this event, but that was just good enough for a tie for fourth place.
Last year, Robert Karlsson fired four rounds in the 60s and set a new tournament scoring record of 263. That gave him a four-shot win over Charl Schwartzel and Lee Westwood.
Several players for the U.S. PGA Tour remained in Europe to play Gut Kaden this week. That list includes Americans J.B. Holmes and Brett Wetterich, as well as South African Rory Sabbatini and Australia's Rod Pampling.
The German contingent will be led as usual by Bernhard Langer, a three-time winner here. Other Germans in the field include Martin Kaymer, Marcel Siem and Sven Struver.
The Golf Channel will have three hours of coverage all four days.
Next week, the European Tour also offers two events. The biggest and brightest stars will be at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, while the remainder of the field plays the Russian Open Golf Championship, where Alejandro Canizares won last year.
LPGA TOUR
EVIAN MASTERS, Evian Masters Golf Club, Evian-les-Bains, France - The LPGA heads across the pond for two weeks, starting with this week's Evian Masters.
There will be a select field on hand this week to try to wrestle the title away from Karrie Webb, who held off Laura Davies and Michelle Wie by a single stroke last year.
For Webb, it was her first win at this event and 33rd of her career. She has won two more times since then. Her victory here last year was one of her five titles in '06.
Wie returns to action this week for the first time since withdrawing from the U.S. Women's Open a few weeks back. Wie has been battling a wrist injury throughout the year so there is no telling if she will be able to complete the four-day tournament which starts on Wednesday.
The Evian Masters will be played for the 14th time overall and eighth as a part of the LPGA Tour. The event is hosted by the Ladies European Tour, but the last seven winners have been regulars on the LPGA Tour. Catrin Nilsmark was the last full-time LET member to capture the crown, which she did in 1999.
The Golf Channel will broadcast action of all four rounds, but each day the coverage will be tape-delayed.
The LPGA remains in Europe next week as the tour heads to Scotland for the Women's British Open, where Sherri Steinhauer won last year. The championship will be played at the home of golf, the Old Course at St. Andrews, for the first time.
NATIONWIDE TOUR
COX CLASSIC, Champions Run, Omaha, Nebraska - The Nationwide Tour remains in the nation's heartland this week for the Cox Classic.
Johnson Wagner, last year's winner, has moved on to the PGA Tour. However, he has missed the cut in 13 of his last 15 starts, but he does stands 126th on the money list thanks in large part to tying for ninth at the Houston Open.
Wagner closed with rounds of 64-63 to win by four strokes over Craig Bowden.
Bowden put together a strong effort despite the fact that his young daughter had gotten sick earlier in the week. Due to that, he nearly missed the event. Instead, Bowden birdied the 18th for a solo second place finish.
The Golf Channel has coverage of all four rounds from Champions Run. Next up for the Nationwide Tour is the Wichita Open, where Kevin Johnson won last year.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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